Asset bubbles occur when speculation and emotion drive prices far beyond their fundamental value. With the S&P 500 delivering double-digit gains in 2023, 2024, and 2025, it’s easy to see why some assume we’re in one today. While every bubble has its own backstory, they all follow a familiar pattern. Here are some of the […]
Drivers in the Greater Toronto Area got a rude awakening at the pumps yesterday. Thanks to escalating geopolitical tensions in Iran, gas prices spiked by 8 cents per litre overnight, pushing the average price for regular fuel up to roughly $1.73 per litre, leaving many motorists feeling gouged at the pumps. Since the conflict in […]
Many have said “bull markets don’t die of old age; central bankers kill them.” The conventional wisdom is that once rates start to head higher, stocks are less attractive because the cost of borrowing becomes more expensive and investors are offered an income-producing alternative by the bond market. However, history says they are wrong. The […]
SpaceX shares made their long anticipated debut to the public market on Friday, June 12. The demand was unprecedented. Not only was it the largest offering in history after raising over $75 billion, but brokerage firm Charles Schwab also said it was the fifth most active day in their company’s 50-year history. SpaceX’s pre-open price […]
Economists define a “technical recession” as two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth. After shrinking by 1.0% in the final quarter of 2025, the economy dipped an additional 0.1% in the first quarter of 2026. This latest contraction is minor, and it is a preliminary figure that will likely be revised upward or downward in […]
On October 19, 2026, Alberta will have a referendum about whether it should have a referendum to separate from Canada. The exact wording on the ballot for one of the ten questions will read: Should Alberta remain a province of Canada, or should the Government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian […]
You’ve likely heard the old Wall Street adage that suggests you should “sell in May and go away”. The strategy sounds simple enough because it asks an investor to exit the stock market in early May and not return until the end of October to avoid a perceived summer slump. At Schneider & Pollock Wealth […]
Even after the Strait of Hormuz eventually reopens and Iranian tensions ease, it’s doubtful that the West Texas Intermediate (“WTI”) oil price will decline to its pre-strike level of $65. Instead, we expect today’s $98 price to settle in the $80–90 per barrel range. There are several reasons why we expect a higher floor for […]
The average price of gas at the pump for U.S. consumers is up 30% since the year began. Most of that occurred recently, following the strikes against Iran. If you follow the prediction markets, it doesn’t look very likely that the Republicans will win the House or even the Senate this fall. Current odds suggest […]
Geopolitical uncertainty is a frequent companion to market selloffs, primarily because the market tends to despise surprises and prolonged instability. However, taking a historical perspective reveals that while no one desires the outbreak of war, it is rarely a sound reason to sell off your portfolio. We always tell clients that if their portfolio grows […]
The Greater Toronto Area real estate market has officially dipped below the $1 million mark for the first time in five years, with the average selling price for all home types landing at $973,000 last month. This contraction represents a 27% price decline from the market’s all-time peak in February 2022. I’ve heard many people […]
The investments you don’t own are often just as important as those you do. After years of strong performance, software stocks have had their largest non-recessionary drawdown in almost three decades. One exchange-traded fund (called the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF), which is a basket of software stocks, is down nearly 25% so far this […]
Last week, Donald Trump announced he would nominate Kevin Warsh to be the next Federal Reserve Chair, a move that surprised plenty (including us, since we thought Rick Rieder would be selected). The market did not take the announcement well. Many attributed the selloff to Warsh’s criticism of easy-money policies and the large expansion of […]
While leadership changes at the Fed can spark uncertainty, the S&P 500 historically rallies whenever a new U.S. Federal Reserve Chair is appointed. In fact, going back to 1970, the S&P 500 has gained 12.7% in the twelve months that follow. This data is particularly timely, as Jerome Powell’s term ends on May 15, 2026. […]
Over the weekend, the United States took control of Venezuela’s oil assets. Given Venezuela’s vast oil reserves, it has naturally raised questions about whether Canadian oil producers should be concerned. On paper, Venezuela’s oil reserves are enormous. The country holds close to 17% of the world’s oil reserves, roughly 300 billion barrels, more than Saudi […]
While both the S&P 500 and S&P/TSX Composite Index are flat so far this month, December is historically a great month for stocks. In fact, over the last hundred years, the only decade to post a negative median return during December was in the 1930s. All decades since — from the 1940s until the 2020s […]
We anticipate the U.S. Supreme Court will invalidate President Trump’s tariffs early next year, sending markets higher. The legality of widespread tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (“IEEPA”) is now before the United States Supreme Court. The question is whether the law intended for specific emergencies allows the President to levy unbounded […]
Last week, both the Bank of Canada and the U.S. Federal Reserve cut their benchmark interest rates by a quarter percentage point. Though we’re two separate countries, both central banks are contending with challenges that monetary policy alone cannot fix. In Canada, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem emphasized that the 25-basis-point cut, which brings […]
President Donald Trump is once again floating the idea of cutting the number of corporate earnings reports in half — from four to two per year. The proposal, first raised during his presidency in 2018, would have U.S. public companies report every six months instead of quarterly. While it may sound like a way to […]
I have trouble keeping up with the reasons why Bitcoin moves in either direction. It seemed correlated with the Nasdaq coming out of the pandemic; then was compared to “digital gold”; and recently it was a hedge against government mismanagement. Its bull case seems to change each day and I’m not embarrassed to say that […]
