Even after the Strait of Hormuz eventually reopens and Iranian tensions ease, it’s doubtful that the West Texas Intermediate (“WTI”) oil price will decline to its pre-strike level of $65. Instead, we expect today’s $98 price to settle in the $80–90 per barrel range. There are several reasons why we expect a higher floor for […]
The average price of gas at the pump for U.S. consumers is up 30% since the year began. Most of that occurred recently, following the strikes against Iran. If you follow the prediction markets, it doesn’t look very likely that the Republicans will win the House or even the Senate this fall. Current odds suggest […]
Last week, Donald Trump announced he would nominate Kevin Warsh to be the next Federal Reserve Chair, a move that surprised plenty (including us, since we thought Rick Rieder would be selected). The market did not take the announcement well. Many attributed the selloff to Warsh’s criticism of easy-money policies and the large expansion of […]
Last week, both the Bank of Canada and the U.S. Federal Reserve cut their benchmark interest rates by a quarter percentage point. Though we’re two separate countries, both central banks are contending with challenges that monetary policy alone cannot fix. In Canada, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem emphasized that the 25-basis-point cut, which brings […]
September has historically been a weak month for stocks, and this year’s sentiment will hinge on Jay Powell’s speech tomorrow at Jackson Hole Students aren’t the only ones uneasy about September—stocks often dread it too. Historically, it’s the worst month for the market. Since 1930, the S&P 500 has fallen about 55% of the time […]
