By: Jeff Pollock It’s difficult to dispute the seasonal weakness that September historically accompanies. Many call it the “September Effect”. Going back almost a century, it’s the only month of the year when the S&P 500 statistically posts a loss more often than a gain. Since 1930, September has delivered a median return of -0.4%. […]
Strategist Ed Yardeni coined the phrase “bond vigilantes” in 1983. It describes the bond market investors who sell government bonds to drive yields higher as a protest against inflationary government policy. Recently, we’ve watched these vigilantes emerge not only in the U.S. but in several places around the globe (Japan, France, and Germany). The 30-year […]
Many have said “bull markets don’t die of old age; central bankers kill them.” The conventional wisdom is that once rates start to head higher, stocks are less attractive because the cost of borrowing becomes more expensive and investors are offered an income-producing alternative by the bond market. However, history says they are wrong. The […]
With the market hitting record highs daily, finding compelling new opportunities at attractive entry points has become increasingly challenging. Brookfield Infrastructure (“BIPC”), which hit almost $70 as recently as March, has pulled back just about 25% the last several weeks to $53.34 today. (Disclosure: Clients, Jeff Pollock, and Sunni Schneider have a financial interest in […]
Last week, Donald Trump announced he would nominate Kevin Warsh to be the next Federal Reserve Chair, a move that surprised plenty (including us, since we thought Rick Rieder would be selected). The market did not take the announcement well. Many attributed the selloff to Warsh’s criticism of easy-money policies and the large expansion of […]
While leadership changes at the Fed can spark uncertainty, the S&P 500 historically rallies whenever a new U.S. Federal Reserve Chair is appointed. In fact, going back to 1970, the S&P 500 has gained 12.7% in the twelve months that follow. This data is particularly timely, as Jerome Powell’s term ends on May 15, 2026. […]
