High Gas Prices May Drive a Quick Exit from Iran

The average price of gas at the pump for U.S. consumers is up 30% since the year began. Most of that occurred recently, following the strikes against Iran.  If you follow the prediction markets, it doesn’t look very likely that the Republicans will win the House or even the Senate this fall. Current odds suggest […]

Musical Chairs at the Federal Reserve Historically Sings Well for the Market

While leadership changes at the Fed can spark uncertainty, the S&P 500 historically rallies whenever a new U.S. Federal Reserve Chair is appointed. In fact, going back to 1970, the S&P 500 has gained 12.7% in the twelve months that follow. This data is particularly timely, as Jerome Powell’s term ends on May 15, 2026. […]

Things We Won’t Do as a Portfolio Manager

In the world of behavioral finance, there is a well-documented phenomenon known as loss aversion. Nobel Prize-winning psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky found that the pain of a loss is psychologically twice as powerful as the joy of an equivalent gain. Statistically, most investors require at least a 2-to-1 gain to offset the emotional […]