Don’t Blow Up Your Portfolio During Times of War

Geopolitical uncertainty is a frequent companion to market selloffs, primarily because the market tends to despise surprises and prolonged instability. However, taking a historical perspective reveals that while no one desires the outbreak of war, it is rarely a sound technical reason to sell off your stock position.

Aside from the unique circumstances of World War II, the market has demonstrated remarkable resilience, almost always performing positively in the years following the commencement of major military conflicts. Data tracking the ten years following the breakout of U.S.-involved wars shows significant gains, ranging from a 108% return following the 1961 Bay of Pigs Invasion to a staggering 461% return following the 1990 Gulf War.

• Gulf War (1990): +461%
• Korean War (1950): +372%
• Vietnam War (1955): +184%
• Iraq War (2003): +117%
• Bay of Pigs Invasion (1961): +108%
• World War II (1939): +108% 

In the current landscape, U.S. military actions against Venezuela and Iran have had the most direct impact on global oil prices. Operation Absolute Resolve, the U.S. strike against Venezuela, occurred in the early hours of Saturday, January 3, 2026. On the Friday immediately preceding that strike, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil closed at $64.50 per barrel. This was followed by Operation Epic Fury, a joint U.S.-Israeli military operation that began on Saturday, February 28, 2026. Just before those strikes, WTI crude was trading in a range of approximately $70.00 to $73.00 per barrel.

The volatility reached a peak on Monday, March 9, 2026, when WTI crude hit an intraday high of $113.41 per barrel. While prices have cooled since that spike—with WTI currently trading at approximately $95 a barrel—the impact on energy-sector equities has been substantial. 

For instance, Suncor was trading at $62.13 at the time of the Venezuela strike and has since risen to $84.29. Similarly, Freehold Royalties, which was valued at $15.09 after accounting for dividends, has climbed to $17.43. Alongside these holdings, our clients continue to maintain positions in pipelines to capitalize on these shifting energy dynamics.

-written by Jeff Pollock