Trump Built the Tariff Wall, But Congress May Tear it Down

Back in the day, Richard Nixon employed the “madman theory”: act crazy enough that other world leaders would think twice before pushing too far. Trump, on the other hand, might have skipped the theory part and gone straight to the performance. 

It’s hard to say whether these global tariffs are meant to negotiate a new deal or to reshore manufacturing back to the United States. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent leans toward the former, while trade adviser Peter Navarro clearly advocates the latter.

Navarro believes tariffs will attract $6 trillion in new U.S. revenue and investment over the next decade. Unfortunately, the U.S. market shed $7 trillion in value in the two days following Trump’s tariff announcement last week. Artificial intelligence is exposing academic plagiarism, but no one will ever accuse Dr. Navarro of such offenses. His economic beliefs are undoubtedly his own.

Can the U.S. power grid handle the construction and operation of tens of thousands of new manufacturing plants (see our blog AI’s Thirst for Power)? And how many permanent jobs will this actually create? Aren’t most plants automated by robots nowadays? By comparison, a Ford Motor plant needs 80% fewer workers today than it did in the 1930s to build a car.

Trump’s support from Congress will fall—just like Nixon’s did.

In 1972, Nixon won 49 of 50 states, racking up 520 electoral votes and 60.7% of the popular vote. In 2024, Trump won 31 states, 312 electoral votes, and 49.8% of the popular vote. Just two years after Nixon’s 1972 landslide victory, he resigned after losing crucial support in Congress for a self-inflicted scandal.

Many U.S. politicians have been quiet in recent months, perhaps afraid of being primaried by opponents backed with Elon Musk’s deep pockets. But even Musk is publicly criticizing Trump’s tariff hawks, calling Peter Navarro “dumber than a sack of bricks” on social media earlier this week.

If enough support grows in Congress—two-thirds of the House and Senate is required to override a presidential veto—the legislature could reclaim tariff power that was delegated to the president many decades ago. Article I, Section 8, Clause 1 of the U.S. Constitution gives Congress, not the president, the authority “To lay and collect Taxes, Duties, Imposts and Excises…”

Does Congress have the votes to make this happen today? No.

Everyone loses during a tariff war, so wait for Trump’s polling numbers to shift south. Support will erode as people lose their job, prices go up (see our blog Auto Tariffs Would Slam the Brakes on the Industry and Drive Inflation Higher), and anyone with an investment account opens their statement in the mail to see a lower 401K valuation.

All 435 members of the House of Representatives answer to the electorate on November 3, 2026. Phone calls from angry constituents will ultimately reveal where each legislator’s loyalties truly lie: to Trump or to their livelihood.

-written by Jeff Pollock